Latest CRM Commentary

EU grains mixed amid lack of fresh news

Cereals

  • UK wheat was once again little changed in thin trading volume amid a dearth of fresh news across the grain markets.
  • Matif wheat found it hard to keep momentum due to a rising euro (+0.4%) against the US Dollar and ongoing sluggish EU wheat exports – 212KT this week taking the total to 11.3MlnT (-18.5% vs 2016/17). For corn however, the pace of imports remains incredibly high with a further 671KT imported this week according to data from the European Commission – if realised it would be the highest since July 2014.
  • Stratégie Grains lowered once again its 2017/18 EU wheat exports forecast by 750KT to 21.6MlnT [-2.5MlnT from a year ago] over fierce competition from Russia. For next year though, EU wheat exports could benefit from higher global demand, resulting in reduced stocks ie  12MlnT vs 13.5MlnT expected at the current marketing season.
  • The drought in the US continues to intensify across the Plains and according to today’s CPC 3-month outlook, precipitation are likely to remain below normal for parts of the southern Plains [maps available here].
  • In its monthly update, the IGC raised both its 2017/18 global wheat and corn production forecast by 8MlnT and 14MlnT to 757MlnT and 1054MlnT respectively. For the 2018/19, global wheat production could fall by 15MlnT to 742MlnT, leading to the first stocks decline in 6 years.

Oilseeds

  • Matif rapeseed snapped a 3-day losing streak on technical considerations and a rally in soymeal values despite sinking soybean oil prices on Chicago [at their lowest since June 2017] and weaker palm oil on the Malaysian exchange.
  • According to LMC International chairman James Fry, the 2018 global palm oil production is set to rise some 5-6MlnT  from last year with plantations in South East Asia recovering from the 2015 El Niño event. At a seminar organised by the MPOB, Fry stated that the EU was wrong in banning palm biodiesel as it would result in higher food prices for EU citizens (food vs fuel).
  • US farmers are likely ‘to plant more soybeans than corn for the first time since 1983,…[although] the difference wasn’t much, just 35,000 acres. Growers plan to put in around 90.1 million acres of both crops, little changed from 2017’. [Source: Farm Futures, full article here].
  • Dry weather in Argentina continues to be supportive for protein prices. The May-18 CBOT soymeal contract has gained 4.8% over the last 4 sessions and retraced nearly 50% of the Dec 6th-Jan 12th fall.

Chart of the day#1: Weekly EU trade update – Cereals

Chart of the day#2: US Drought Monitor

Chart of the day#3: Weekly EU Oilseeds imports update


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