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Grains mostly lower in the aftermath of the USDA WASDE report

Cereals

  • In the aftermath of the April USDA WASDE report and amid a lack of fresh news, grains took a breather today.
  • Spring plantings continue to be delayed across the Northern hemisphere due to frustrating ongoing wet weather. Such conditions also lead to delays in black grass control and consequently fungicide programs in the UK. May-18 Liffe feed wheat continues to hover over its £146 technical resistance.
  • FranceAgriMer – once again – lowered its 2017/18 French wheat ending stock forecast by more than 0.5MMT due to an increase in its EU exports (+0.4MMT to 8.9MMT). Matif wheat was not convinced, edging lower in decent volumes with the 4-day winning streak of the euro against the US Dollar adding pressure.
  • With the Argentine corn crop failure well-known, the trade has started to shift its attention further north in Brazil where declining soil moisture could threaten the safrinha ie the 2nd corn crop. Yesterday, the USDA continued to cut its 2017/18 Brazil corn production forecast by 2.5MMT to 92MMT, still relatively high compared to CONAB’s estimate of 88.6MMT (vs 97.8MMT last year).
  • The Russian Rouble tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2016 against the US Dollar trading above the 65RUB mark, pushing domestic values higher and in turn it could well weigh on USD denominated export prices and lead to higher Russian spring plantings.


Oilseeds

  • Despite crude oil trading at its highest since early December 201 [~$67.50/bbl] amid escalating tensions between the US and Russia, rapeseed settled to a 1-week low due to a bleak EU biodiesel outlook.
  • Private US exporters reported the flash export sales of 120KT & 141.5KT of soybeans for delivery to Argentina and Mexico respectively, both for the 2018/19 marketing year. CBOT soybeans posted a 5th consecutive day of gains – its best performance since the end of February.